International Inbound Market Intelligence
Visitation Forecast
Tourism Economics projects international tourist arrivals in the United States to reach 67.9 million visitors in 2025. Although this is a significant decline in visitation, it is a substantial upward revision from earlier forecasts. More than 2 million visitors were added back in compared to the March 2025 forecast, in which Tourism Economics anticipated 65.6 million visitors for this year. With year-to-date visitation trends pacing ahead of earlier projections, this revision reflects the latest trends in inbound travel to the U.S.
Visitation is projected to grow by 4% in 2026, fueled by major events including the FIFA World Cup, the Route 66 Centennial and America 250.
Looking further ahead, arrivals are expected to continue to grow, at an annual rate of about 5%. By 2029, visitation is expected to reach record levels, with 81.9 million arrivals, surpassing the 79.7 million record set in 2018.
Overseas Arrivals
Overseas visitation has proven to be quite resilient, with year-to-date arrivals through August 2% below 2024 levels. Total overseas arrivals are projected to decrease by 2.7% in 2025, followed by a 3% increase in 2026.
Europe
Europe accounts for 41% of total overseas arrivals, a share that is projected to remain stable through 2029. The latest forecast shows arrivals from Europe down 2% in 2025, in line with year-to-date actuals through August. In 2026, arrivals are expected to increase by 3%, after which growth is projected to accelerate, with an average growth rate of 5% in 2027 through 2029.
Mexico vs. Canada
With a 20% decline in arrivals, Canada is no longer the largest inbound market in 2025. Mexico became the number one market, following a 12% increase year-to-date visitation through July 2025 and is projected to remain the largest market through at least 2029. Canada is expected to return to a healthy 6% growth rate for the next few years, with visitation reaching 20 million by 2029.
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